Retail sales provide a quick look at a portion of consumption.

The U.S. Census Bureau's retail and food services sales are seasonally adjusted, but they are not real figures that exclude price changes. An increase in gas station sales due to rising gasoline prices does not mean that fuel consumption has increased by the same amount.

Since this data focuses on retail sales, its scope differs from total household consumption, which includes services. Check which items, such as automobiles or gas stations, drove the overall figure, and whether the previous month was revised. Surveys like consumer sentiment reflect intentions and perceptions, which differ from actual spending statistics.

The PMI is a survey that asks about the direction of business activity.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is an index that reads the expansion or contraction of activity compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 is generally interpreted as expansion, and below it as contraction. A value of 52 does not mean that production increased by 52%, nor is it the same as the GDP growth rate.

If it moves from 48 to 49, it can be interpreted as a moderation in the degree of contraction, but it does not mean it has crossed the expansion threshold. Distinguish between manufacturing and service indices, and break them down by new orders, employment, and prices. You must also verify whether longer delivery times are due to strong demand or supply disruptions.

Tariffs, geopolitics, and corporate earnings are also read as economic paths.

Tariffs or export restrictions can affect import costs, sales markets, and supply chains. Distinguish between announced proposals and confirmed applications, and identify the specific items, timing, and exceptions. Geopolitical news can also affect various channels such as crude oil, transportation, and risk premiums.

In corporate earnings, read the previous quarter's figures separately from future outlooks. While increased AI investment is a revenue opportunity for suppliers, it may represent immediate costs or cash outflows for the investing company. The examples here explain transmission channels and do not predict the effects of specific policies or the returns of individual stocks.

In Korea, the announcement time shifts by one hour.

The time difference between U.S. Eastern Time (ET) and Korea varies depending on Daylight Saving Time (EDT) and Standard Time (EST). Below is a conversion table for releases scheduled at those ET times. Official schedules take precedence for actual dates and times, which may change due to holidays or schedule adjustments.

The consensus is not a single official correct answer.

Market expectations may vary depending on the research institution, participants, and the time of compilation. Even with the same indicator name, figures cannot be directly compared if they differ in month-on-month vs. year-on-year, headline vs. core, or seasonal adjustment status. If previous values have been revised, record both the pre- and post-revision figures.

Even if news reports say it "beat expectations," verify what exactly was exceeded. Whether a higher number is positive also varies by indicator. Record the difference between the actual release and the estimate first, and treat market reactions as a separate observation.

Do not view the initial price immediately after an announcement as a definitive signal.

Quotes may change rapidly and spreads may widen around major releases. Market orders do not guarantee the price shown on the screen, and limit orders do not guarantee execution. After interpreting the initial number, the direction may change as details, revisions, and press conference comments are incorporated.

Predicting statistics and actual trading profits are separate matters. With leveraged products, small directional errors and sharp whipsaw movements can increase losses. You do not have to trade immediately on announcements you do not understand; you can compare your interpretations using mock records.

Try recording a single announcement like this.

Hypothetical observation example: “Core CPI month-on-month expected 0.2%, released 0.3%. No revision to previous figures. 10-year Treasury yield rose after the release. However, also check earnings news released at the same time.” Separating facts from interpretation can reduce the mistake of changing the narrative to fit the results.

1. 1

   Check the issuing agency, the reference period, and the ET and KST times.

2. 2

   Record the forecast, previous, actual, and revised figures in the same units.

3. 3

   Consider the profit improvement path and the interest burden path separately.

4. 4

   Record the reactions of government bond yields, the dollar, indices, and individual companies separately.

5. 5

   Compare the immediate aftermath with the situation after some time has passed, and note the limitations of the initial interpretation.

Check what you have read.

• Did you distinguish between consumption value and real sales volume?
• Did you distinguish between survey data and actual activity indicators?
• Did you check for daylight saving time and date changes?
• Did you match the source and units of the forecast?
• Did you record facts and conditional interpretations separately?

Apply what you read to the actual screen

Try it on WAPE

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